![]() All graphs with multiple queries were generated in this manner. Google Trends does allow the comparison of up to 5 search queries at once, where all results are shown on a shared scale. ![]() Comparisons between graphs should therefore be made with caution. This means that all searches are scaled from 0 to 100, with 100 representing the day during the period of interest during which the search query made up the greatest proportion of all Google Searches. Additionally, Google Trends yeilds relative search proportions rather than absolute search counts. It is important to note that it is impossible to know an individual’s motivation for making a particular search, so these analyses are exclusively exploratory. Several of his ideas are incorporated into the following analyses, although his work has been almost entirely focused on predicting presidential elections and these analyses look exclusively at the current Democratic primaries. Main events from each of the first four Democratic Debates were selected for investigation with Google Trends data, and search volume for relevant terms has been plotted for the week immediately preceding and immediately following each debate.Īrguably the most notable advocate of the use of Google Trends data in election applications is Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, former data scientist at Google and bestselling author of “Everybody Lies.” Stephens-Davidowitz has examined questions such as the role of racism in Barack Obama’s 20 election performance and how Google data can show voter reactions to rumors and advertising campaigns. After not finding clear trends associated with performance variables from the fourth debate, we decided to consider Google Search behavior as a secondary indicator of the impact that debate performance has on public perceptions of Democratic presidential candidates. ![]() It is thought that the Americans who make searches online may be a more representative sample of the voting population than those reached by polling organizations, and that people may be more honest in the privacy of their own computer than in a poll response where social desirability bias can come into play. Google search data is increasingly viewed as an important predictor of election outcomes. ![]()
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